Transfer dribble #3: Hugo Ekitiké looks familiar, new fullbacks and weird things on the internet
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The pre-season format of this will be as free-flowing as peak Kevin De Bruyne, covering Premier League transfers, all sorts of FPL stuff, or weird things people say about football data. Once we enter the regular season, it will be more about actionable fantasy advice, which will help you better understand the data and make sounder managerial decisions. So, bear with me.
This should be the final issue before the player prices are announced. I can already sense some nervousness on social media, and many are genuinely looking forward to the game, including me.
Fortunately, with numerous developments in the transfer market currently underway, we have sufficient material to fill this oddly long pre-FPL launch void.
Hugo Ekitiké: This feels familiar…
Something interesting is unfolding at the Liverpool and Newcastle camps. And I’m here for it all:
This is the transfer story to follow.
And certainly one that is essential for FPL (among other, less important stuff, right?)
Why is he such a transfer target for the Champions League teams, you might ask? Well, they share many similarities.
We all recognise that Alexander Isak is a unique type of player. Although he is 1.92 metres tall, he is incredibly mobile and technically skilled.
Plus, he does everything a centre-forward should do, including clever movement in the box, finding great goal-scoring positions, and taking a sufficient number of attempts, among many other things that he does on a high level.
His trademark, however, is his ability to receive the ball in a deeper area and drive it closer to the opponent’s goal, either to distribute it or shoot. According to the goal probability added model, which measures how his dribbles and carries increase the team’s likelihood of scoring, he ranks in the 95th percentile for number 9s across the top 5 leagues.
It goes without saying that he can also receive in dangerous areas inside the box, and that his shot map is a thing of beauty.
His 0.49 xG per 90 minutes was the third highest last season, only surpassed by Erling Haaland and Yoane Wissa. The reason his chances were of such high quality is that he created many excellent close-range shots. He recorded 11 shots inside the six-yard box and converted 8 of them.
So, what about a 23-year-old forward who has spent the last two seasons in Frankfurt?
Let’s put it this way—you probably won’t find a player more similar to Isak at the moment in the world’s top leagues. Furthermore, he truly dominated the Bundesliga.
Data-wise:
99th percentile in the goal probability added from runs and dribbles
3.70 shots p90
0.59 xG p90
0.20 xA p90
90th+ percentile in dribble volume
97th percentile for touches in the box
… to name a few important metrics, and demonstrate this is an Isak-esque cocktail of skills. He can do everything, and everything on a high level.
Analysing his shot selection, there are more shots outside the box, mainly due to a higher overall number of attempts. This isn’t too concerning because of the large volume of dangerous attempts. For example, he took 17 shots from inside the 6-yard box and converted 8 of them.
You need to remind yourself that although he likes playing from deep, he ultimately ends up where it counts the most.
He would be an ideal player for Liverpool.
He would be an ideal player for Newcastle.
Moving to the Premier League will establish him as the next big thing. Of course, he has only had one successful season in the top five leagues and is still not at his physical peak, but his potential is huge. Some criticise his aerial ability, but hey, Isak also isn’t elite in this area.
I can’t wait to see how this pans out.
Brief note: Things are happening very quickly. New reports indicate that Ekitiké and Liverpool have reached an agreement over a six-year contract, and that Newcastle has already withdrawn. Ekitiké wants to play for the Reds. Understandable.
Bizarre information on a new Newcastle’s set-piece coach
Let’s carry on with Newcastle for a little while.
Awaiting their Champions League campaign, they naturally seek to improve their team.
Anthony Elanga is their most notable addition so far. A decent signing, although probably a bit overpriced at £55 million. He wasn’t a standout Premier League winger, although you need to consider that Nottingham Forest were quite uninspiring in attack. Still, it's a considerable Premier League tax on that transfer, though it will likely work out fine.
They also appointed a new set-piece coach named Martin Mark, who previously worked with the Danish top-tier side FC Midtjylland, a well-known club in analytical circles for their data-driven football approach.
Last season, the Magpies ranked 10th in xG generated from set pieces, making it the second-worst result among the top seven Premier League teams.
They scored just five goals from corners, which ranks as the fourth worst overall. For comparison, Arsenal scored twelve goals. Nottingham and Crystal Palace scored ten.
In the xG per corner metric, which is arguably the most important for set pieces as it assesses effectiveness, they ranked 15th.
You can’t be 15th with big man Dan Burn.
Not acceptable.
So, who is Martin Mark?
Apparently a super-human, as 27 of Midtjylland's 60 goals came from set pieces. They say it here:
or here:
Even though it’s posted by people with a hundred thousand followers, it's not true.
It’s virtually impossible to reach that rate of set-piece goals with that high total of goals scored. If that were true, that person would earn £100,000 a week.
Spreading lies on the internet is very easy.
Midtjylland scored 10 set-piece goals last season (15 if you include throw-ins, but that’s all) and recorded the 3rd highest xG. In terms of xG per corner, they ranked 7th.
They didn’t convert many headed attempts, but I suspect there is greater potential to do so in Newcastle.
This is not a personal attack on Mark, who I'm sure is a great set-piece coach.
But there’s no need to go over the top just for engagement.
El Hadji Malick Diouf and Borna Sosa, welcome to the Premier League
New week, new FB/WB additions to the Premier League.
I published an X thread featuring new faces, including Slavia Prague's El Hadji Malick Diouf, who has been officially announced as a West Ham player, where he will play under Graham Potter’s guidance.
If you missed the thread, you can read it here.
In a nutshell, this 20-year-old Senegalese kid is one of the most talented full-backs in the world. He scored 7 goals and assisted 3 (it should have been much more) for Slavia Prague in the domestic league, and registered 37 shots in the box in about 2.150 minutes on the pitch.
The important thing is that he also looked impressive in the Europa League and on an international level.
Additionally, Crystal Palace have introduced Croatian wing-back Borna Sosa, who aims to revive his career after playing just 2,200 minutes over the past two years.
He played 1,270 minutes in Serie A for Torino last season but did not create any final product. However, he made 4 assists in just around 900 minutes with Ajax the season before.
Additionally, he amassed 24 assists in 7,651 minutes in the Bundesliga, which is… a lot.
As expected, he looked fantastic on the pitch offensively.
Over that time, he racked up:
182 passes leading directly to a shot
18.40 expected assists
24 actual assists
From set pieces, it was:
83 passes leading directly to a shot
7.20 expected assists
9 assists
… so a large portion of his creativity comes from open play.
He is a good dribbler who covers a lot of ground but is more of a touchline player than someone who regularly creates direct danger with his runs.
His most effective weapon is crossing, both from wide and deep areas, and both in terms of volume and quality. Playing high balls is an integral part of the Eagles’ plan in the final third, and they excelled at set pieces last season, so he’s a good fit.
Can he bench Tyrick Mitchell? I’m not sure (and I'm not even sure if that’s necessary). He arrived for a reported £3m, so if he doesn’t, it’s not a big deal for Palace. He adds depth to the squad for a good price, that’s for sure.